Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Forecasting

I found quite amusing to discover several papers about forecast performance and the ability to estimate future events.

It has repeatedly said that forecasting shouldn’t be an economist job. Future is unforeseeable for
everyone and none of the economist tools can help there.  Regardless of what is said, many of us
can’t stay away from forecasting. Two recent papers have been analysing the forecasting power of different people.

http://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/xap-0000040.pdf

http://www.cis.upenn.edu/~ungar/papers/forecast_AAAI_MAGG.pdf

Aparently being open-minded, a knowledge on probabilistics, interacting with others and discuss your forecasts with other analysts increases significatively your chances of being right.

Saturday, May 16, 2015

Stata in Google Scholar

In the academic world the use  of analytical/statistical tools is essential to do research. The data analysis and empirical research has grown exponentially in academic publications as PCs became universally affordable, -- there is an interesting graph showing the growth of empirical research in the economic literature (vs theoretical) that unfortunately I couldn’t find.


The most widely used of those statistical tools is R, as the graph below shows. However, Stata is surprisingly matching R. Strangely enough Stata is not that ubiquitous outside the academic world.




Source: http://www.r-bloggers.com/statas-academic-growth-nearly-as-fast-as-rs/