Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Forecasting

I found quite amusing to discover several papers about forecast performance and the ability to estimate future events.

It has repeatedly said that forecasting shouldn’t be an economist job. Future is unforeseeable for
everyone and none of the economist tools can help there.  Regardless of what is said, many of us
can’t stay away from forecasting. Two recent papers have been analysing the forecasting power of different people.

http://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/xap-0000040.pdf

http://www.cis.upenn.edu/~ungar/papers/forecast_AAAI_MAGG.pdf

Aparently being open-minded, a knowledge on probabilistics, interacting with others and discuss your forecasts with other analysts increases significatively your chances of being right.

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